Game theory analysis of the Irish peace process

Abstract

On April 10, 1998 representatives from the British and Irish governments signed the most famous agreement in history concerning relations with Northern Ireland. This agreement became known as the Good Friday Agreement, and it followed decades of failed negotiations both inside the province of Northern Ireland and internationally. In an effort to shed new light on the success of this agreement after so much failure, I drew upon the methods of Game Theory in order to deconstruct the peace process. I focused on three pivotal moments, in which the fate of the negotiations hung in a balance, and I redrew each situation as a game model. I then outlined the strategies and solutions to the game using the elegance and simplicity of game theory. The results of these games provided a new and rational perspective to the actions of the negotiators in this process. Finally, this thesis reflects upon the successes and shortcomings of the Good Friday Agreement over a decade after its conception.